BetVictor Gold Cup (Early Thoughts)


The BetVictor Gold Cup is the new name for what used to be known as the PaddyPower Gold Cup, the race is run on the Saturday of Cheltenham’s November Open Meeting and is run over 2 Miles 4 Furlongs & 78 yards.

I have looked at the last 10 runnings of the race and looked at the following trends, Age, Weight, Official Rating, Recent Runs, Last Run, Year Runs, Year Wins & Distance.

Each horse will score the points for each trend they pass and the horse with the most points will be the selection for the race.

Early Decs –

5F-151 Irish Cavalier(14) 7 11-12 Rebecca Curtis 160
P3311- Top Gamble(228) 8 11-12 Kerry Lee 160
34F5-3 Vibrato Valtat(20) 7 11-11 Paul Nicholls 159
7U-722 Ballynagour(119) 10 11-9 David Pipe 157
165-6 Taquin Du Seuil(35) 9 11-8 Jonjo O´Neill 156
1610- Annacotty(240) 8 11-8 Alan King 156
7P2-11 Art Mauresque(34) 6 11-8 Paul Nicholls 156
11190- Village Vic(218) 9 11-7 Philip Hobbs 155
3/113- More Of That(241) 8 11-6 Jonjo O´Neill 154
1122-2 Bristol De Mai(13) 5 11-6 Nigel Twiston-Davies 154
25P2- Sizing Granite(228) 8 11-6 Colin Tizzard 154
5665-3 Saphir Du Rheu(14) 7 11-5 Paul Nicholls 153
F2P11- Empire Of Dirt(240) 9 11-3 Gordon Elliott 151
1FF-12 Garde La Victoire(11) 7 11-3 Philip Hobbs 151
3/150- Triolo D´Alene(217) 9 11-2 Nicky Henderson 150
2430-4 Buywise(20) 9 11-2 Evan Williams 150
322P5- Tenor Nivernais(213) 9 11-2 Venetia Williams 150
U112U- Henri Parry Morgan(203) 8 11-2 Peter Bowen 150
31-337 Voix D´Eau(14) 6 11-1 Harry Fry 149
1-2181 Indian Stream(15) 7 11-0 Neil Mulholland 148
1/311- King´s Odyssey(287) 7 10-13 Evan Williams 147
1PPP-2 Regal Encore(196) 8 10-13 Anthony Honeyball 147
309/81 Caid Du Berlais(7) 7 10-12 Paul Nicholls 146
51524- Bouvreuil(219) 5 10-12 Paul Nicholls 146
43P-0 Turban(199) 9 10-11 Paul Henderson 145
4135-2 Double Shuffle(34) 6 10-11 Tom George 145
13561- Aso(208) 6 10-10 Venetia Williams 144
740-70 Shanahan´s Turn(108) 8 10-9 Colin Tizzard 143
3U-402 Sizing Platinum(21) 8 10-8 Colin Tizzard 142
6O113 Ballykan(49) 6 10-7 Nigel Twiston-Davies 141
2F1F3- Stilletto(205) 7 10-7 Johnny Farrelly 141
2579-1 As De Mee(24) 6 10-5 Paul Nicholls 139
1P1F-1 Johnny Og(16) 7 10-5 Martin Keighley 139
22-152 King´s Socks(153) 4 10-4 David Pipe 147
PP-113 Vintage Vinnie(36) 7 10-4 Rebecca Curtis 138
P306-4 Splash Of Ginge(34) 8 10-3 Nigel Twiston-Davies 137
185-11 Frodon(43) 4 10-3 Paul Nicholls 146
31422- Orbasa(211) 5 10-1 Paul Nicholls 135
002U7B Killer Crow(12) 7 10-0 Gordon Elliott 134
1511P- Mystifiable(217) 8 10-0 Fergal O´Brien 134
4-6704 Thomas Crapper(14) 9 10-0 Robin Dickin 134
P43-7P Full Shift(21) 7 9-13 Nicky Henderson 133
UF1-61 Potters Cross(35) 9 9-7 Rebecca Curtis 127

Age

8 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7

Positives (8 Points) = Irish Cavalier, Vibrato Valtat, Art Mauresque, Saphir Du Rheu, Garde La Victoire, Voix D´Eau, Indian Stream, King´s Odyssey, Caid Du Berlais, Double Shuffle, Aso, Ballykan, Stilletto, As De Mee, Johnny Og, Vintage Vinnie, Killer Crow & Full Shift

Weight

8 of the last 10 winners carried 11-00 or less

Positives (8 Points) = Indian Stream, King´s Odyssey, Regal Encore, Caid Du Berlais, Bouvreuil, Turban, Double Shuffle, Aso, Shanahan´s Turn, Sizing Platinum, Ballykan, Stilletto, As De Mee, Johnny Og, King´s Socks, Vintage Vinnie, Splash Of Ginge, Frodon, Orbasa, Killer Crow, Mystifiable, Thomas Crapper, Full Shift & Potters Cross

Official Rating

9 of the last 10 winners were rated between 139 & 148

Positives (9 Points) = Indian Stream, King´s Odyssey, Regal Encore, Caid Du Berlais, Bouvreuil, Turban, Double Shuffle, Aso, Shanahan´s Turn, Sizing Platinum, Ballykan, Stilletto, As De Mee, Johnny Og, King´s Socks & Frodon

Recent Runs

8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 in 1 of their last 2 starts.

Positives (8 Points) = Irish Cavalier, Top Gamble, Vibrato Valtat, Ballynagour, Annacotty, Art Mauresque, More Of That, Bristol De Mai, Sizing Granite, Saphir Du Rheu, Empire Of Dirt, Garde La Victoire, Henri Parry Morgan, Voix D´Eau, Indian Stream, King´s Odyssey, Regal Encore, Caid Du Berlais, Bouvreuil, Double Shuffle, Aso, Sizing Platinum, Ballykan, Stilletto, As De Mee, Johnny Og, King´s Socks, Vintage Vinnie, Frodon, Orbasa, Mystifiable & Potters Cross

Last Run

6 of the last 10 winners had run in July or later that year

Positives (6 Points) = Irish Cavalier, Vibrato Valtat, Ballynagour, Taquin Du Seuil, Art Mauresque, Bristol De Mai, Saphir Du Rheu, Garde La Victoire, Buywise, Voix D´Eau,Indian Stream, Caid Du Berlais, Double Shuffle, Shanahan´s Turn, Sizing Platinum, Ballykan, As De Mee, Johnny Og, Vintage Vinnie, Splash Of Ginge, Frodon, Killer Crow, Thomas Crapper, Full Shift & Potters Cross

Year Runs

1 winner had no run that year, 7 of the other 9 had run between 1 & 4 times that year

Positives (7 Points) = Top Gamble, Vibrato Valtat, Taquin Du Seuil, Annacotty, Village Vic, More Of That, Sizing Granite, Saphir Du Rheu, Empire Of Dirt, Triolo D´Alene, Buywise, Tenor Nivernais, Henri Parry Morgan, Voix D´Eau, King´s Odyssey, Regal Encore, Caid Du Berlais, Bouvreuil, Turban, Double Shuffle, Shanahan´s Turn, Stilletto & Mystifiable

Year Wins

1 winner had not run that year, 6 of the other 9 had won that year

Positives (6 Points) = Irish Cavalier, Top Gamble, Taquin Du Seuil, Annacotty, Art Mauresque, Village Vic, Bristol De Mai, Empire Of Dirt, Garde La Victoire, Triolo D´Alene, Henri Parry Morgan, Voix D´Eau, Indian Stream, King´s Odyssey, Caid Du Berlais, Bouvreuil, Aso, Ballykan, Stilletto, As De Mee, Johnny Og, King´s Socks, Vintage Vinnie, Frodon, Orbasa, Mystifiable, Thomas Crapper & Potters Cross

Distance

8 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2m 4f or further

Positives (8 Points) = Irish Cavalier, Top Gamble, Ballynagour, Taquin Du Seuil, Annacotty, Art Mauresque, Village Vic, More Of That, Bristol De Mai, Saphir Du Rheu, Empire Of Dirt, Garde La Victoire, Triolo D´Alene, Buywise, Tenor Nivernais, Henri Parry Morgan, Voix D´Eau, Indian Stream, King´s Odyssey, Regal Encore, Caid Du Berlais, Turban, Double Shuffle, Aso, Shanahan´s Turn, Ballykan, Stilletto, As De Mee, Johnny Og, Vintage Vinnie, Splash Of Ginge, Frodon, Orbasa, Killer Crow, Mystifiable, Thomas Crapper, Full Shift & Potters Cross

Trend Results

60 x Caid Du Berlais

54 x King’s Odyssey
54 x Double Shuffle
54 x Stilletto

53 x Indian Stream
53 x Ballykan
53 x As De Mee
53 x Johnny Og
53 x Vintage Vinnie

47 x Aso

45 x Frodon

43 x Voix D’Eau

40 x Regal Encore

38 x Bouvreuil
38 x Shanahan’s Turn

37 x Saphir Du Rheu
37 x Mystifiable

36 x Irish Cavalier
36 x Art Mauresque
36 x Garde La Victoire
36 x Potters Cross

32 x Turban

31 x Sizing Platinum
31 x King’s Socks
31 x Splash Of Ginge

30 x Orbasa
30 x Killer Crow
30 x Full Shift

29 x Top Gamble
29 x Vibrato Valtat
29 x Annacotty
29 x Empire Of Dirt
29 x Henri Parry Morgan

28 x Bristol De Mai
28 x Thomas Crapper

27 x Taquin Du Seuil

23 x More Of That

22 x Ballynagour

21 x Village Vic
21 x Triolo D’Alene
21 x Buywise

15 x Sizing Granite
15 x Tenor Nivernais

No fewer than 9 horses fail none or 1 trend and they are split between 7 points, however, 2014 winner Caid Du Berlais is the only horse to pass all of the trends and top scores with a maximum of 60 points.

I will be back with an update later in the week